Intel Just Had Its Best Day in Years—And Apple Might Be the Reason Why

The chipmaker surged over 10% on Black Friday after reports emerged that Apple is seriously considering Intel as a foundry partner. Here's what it means for investors.

Black Friday is usually about retail deals and half-empty trading floors. But on November 28, 2025, Intel (INTC) decided to throw the market a curveball. The stock exploded more than 10%, closing at $40.67 and notching a fresh 52-week high. It wasn't just the top gainer on the S&P 500—it was the kind of move that forces analysts to scramble back to their desks.

So what happened? In short: Apple (AAPL). Or more precisely, rumors about Apple.

The Rumor That Changed Everything

Ming-Chi Kuo, the legendary supply chain analyst from TF International Securities, dropped a bombshell report suggesting that Intel's chances of becoming a foundry partner for Apple's M-series chips had "improved significantly." For anyone who's been following Intel's turnaround story, those two words carry enormous weight.

Let's be clear about what this means. Apple—the company famous for its obsessive attention to detail and merciless performance standards—is apparently taking a serious look at Intel's manufacturing capabilities. We're talking about the same Apple that designs its own silicon, demands world-class power efficiency, and has historically relied exclusively on Taiwan's TSMC for chip fabrication.

According to Kuo's report, Apple has already signed an NDA with Intel and obtained early access to Intel's 18A-P process design kit. The chips in question would be entry-level M-series processors—the kind that power MacBook Airs and iPads—with production potentially starting in Q2 or Q3 of 2027.

Now, before you dismiss this as small potatoes, consider the bigger picture. This isn't really about the revenue from 15 to 20 million chips. It's about validation.

Why Apple Is Intel's Holy Grail

For years, Intel's Foundry Services (IFS) division has been trying to convince the world that it can compete with TSMC and Samsung in the contract manufacturing game. It's been an uphill battle. Intel has faced delays, yield problems, and skepticism from potential customers who've watched the company stumble through multiple process node transitions.

Landing Apple—even for just a slice of their chip production—would change that narrative overnight. As Kuo himself noted, the significance of this deal "far exceeds the direct revenue and profit contribution." When Apple commits its engineering resources to evaluate your manufacturing process, it sends a message to every other potential customer in the industry: Intel is back in the game.

Think about it from the perspective of a chip designer at Qualcomm, AMD, or NVIDIA. These companies have been watching Intel's 18A development with cautious interest, but nobody wants to be the guinea pig. If Apple—arguably the most demanding customer in consumer electronics—gives Intel's process the green light, suddenly everyone else has permission to take the plunge.

The Tech Behind the Headlines

Intel's 18A process node represents the company's bid to leapfrog the competition. It incorporates two cutting-edge technologies that Intel has been developing for years: RibbonFET (a gate-all-around transistor design) and PowerVia (backside power delivery). Together, these innovations are supposed to deliver the kind of power efficiency and performance that Apple demands for its mobile devices.

The "P" variant that Apple is reportedly evaluating—18A-P—is specifically optimized for performance-per-watt, which makes sense given Apple's focus on battery life in products like the MacBook Air. Early indications suggest that Apple's simulations are tracking expectations, which is encouraging news for anyone betting on Intel's turnaround.

The next major milestone to watch is Q1 2026, when Intel is expected to release the final manufacturing-ready version of its process design kit (PDK 1.0/1.1). This is the moment of truth—when simulations become real silicon and Apple decides whether to move forward with production.

Why Apple Wants a Backup Plan

Here's something that doesn't get enough attention: Apple's current chip supply chain has a single point of failure, and it's located in Taiwan.

TSMC manufactures virtually all of Apple's custom silicon—every A-series chip in your iPhone, every M-series chip in your Mac. It's an incredibly efficient arrangement when everything's running smoothly. But "everything running smoothly" is exactly the kind of assumption that keeps supply chain executives up at night.

The geopolitical situation across the Taiwan Strait isn't exactly stable. Without getting too political, let's just say that Apple has plenty of reasons to want a manufacturing partner located on American soil. Intel, with its fabs in Arizona and Oregon, offers exactly that kind of strategic diversification.

There's also a financial angle here. By qualifying a second advanced-node supplier, Apple gains leverage in future negotiations with TSMC. It's Supply Chain Management 101: never let yourself become completely dependent on a single vendor.

The CHIPS Act Connection

This story wouldn't be complete without mentioning the elephant in the room: the CHIPS and Science Act. The U.S. government has poured nearly $53 billion into domestic semiconductor manufacturing, and Intel has been one of the biggest beneficiaries, receiving $8.9 billion in federal support.

An Apple-Intel partnership would be a major validation of that public investment. It would prove that American manufacturing can compete at the cutting edge, not just for commodity chips but for the most demanding applications in consumer electronics. From a political standpoint, Apple gains some goodwill in Washington by demonstrating its commitment to domestic sourcing.

Kuo explicitly noted that the partnership aligns with "Made in USA" policy objectives. In an era of increasing tech nationalism, that kind of alignment matters.

What It Means for Intel's Valuation

Here's where things get interesting for investors. Before Black Friday, Intel was trading near its tangible book value—a Price-to-Book ratio around 1.53. That's the kind of multiple you assign to a company that the market views as a legacy business with limited growth prospects.

Compare that to fabless competitors like AMD and NVIDIA, which trade at 10 to 20 times book value. The difference reflects expectations: investors see those companies as growth stories and price them accordingly.

The Apple rumor challenges that narrative. If Intel can successfully execute as a foundry partner for Apple, it's no longer just a legacy chipmaker—it's a player in the high-growth contract manufacturing business. That justifies a meaningfully higher multiple.

It's worth noting that Intel's closing price of $40.67 already exceeded the average analyst price target of around $34.84. In other words, the market moved faster than the analysts. Expect a wave of price target revisions in the coming weeks as Wall Street catches up to the new reality.

The Risks You Need to Know

Let's pump the brakes for a moment. None of this is guaranteed. Intel has a well-documented history of overpromising and underdelivering on its manufacturing roadmap. The 18A process only entered "risk production" in April 2025, and there have been reports of yield challenges along the way.

The entire Apple partnership hinges on Intel hitting its technical milestones. If the Q1 2026 PDK release is delayed or falls short of Apple's performance requirements, this whole story unravels quickly. Given the 10%+ surge on Black Friday, the downside risk is substantial if execution falters.

Investors should also remember that this deal, even if it happens, covers Apple's lowest-end M-series chips. TSMC will still manufacture the premium variants—the Pro, Max, and Ultra chips—as well as all A-series iPhone processors. Intel is competing for a slice of the pie, not the whole thing.

What to Watch Next

For investors trying to navigate this situation, Q1 2026 is the critical date. That's when Intel is expected to release its final process design kit, and it's when we'll get the clearest signal yet about whether Apple is moving forward.

In the meantime, watch for any additional color from Intel's management on their foundry pipeline. CEO Pat Gelsinger has been vocal about the company's turnaround efforts, and any hints about major customer wins would move the stock.

Also keep an eye on the competitive landscape. TSMC isn't going to sit still while Intel tries to poach its biggest customer. Expect some counter-moves, whether in pricing, capacity allocation, or accelerated technology development.

The Bottom Line

Black Friday 2025 might go down as a turning point for Intel. The Apple rumors represent exactly the kind of validation that CEO Pat Gelsinger has been working toward—proof that Intel's manufacturing capabilities can compete at the highest level.

But validation isn't execution. The market is now pricing in a successful turnaround, which means the stakes for actually delivering have never been higher. If Intel hits its milestones and Apple moves forward with production, the company could be looking at a fundamental re-rating that rewards patient shareholders.

If it stumbles? Well, let's just say the market has a long memory for broken promises.

For now, Intel has given investors something they haven't had in a while: a reason to believe. What happens next is up to the engineers in the fab.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.