Is Occidental Petroleum's Q4 Earnings Decline a Red Flag or a Buying Opportunity

Key Takeaways

• Occidental Petroleum (OXY) faces a challenging Q4 2025 earnings report, with analysts projecting a 76.3% year-over-year EPS decline to $0.19 and a 14% revenue drop to $5.88 billion, primarily due to lower oil prices.
• Despite near-term cyclical headwinds, OXY has significantly de-risked its balance sheet through the $9.7 billion OxyChem divestiture, reducing debt and improving financial flexibility.
• The company's long-term investment thesis is increasingly tied to its pioneering Low Carbon Ventures (LCV) segment, particularly Direct Air Capture (DAC) technology, which offers a unique growth optionality benefiting from U.S. federal policy.