Travel Industry Outlook 2026: Airlines, Hotels, and Booking Stocks Investment Guide

What Is the Business Travel Spending Forecast for 2026?

Global business travel spending will reach $1.62 trillion in 2026, according to the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA). This represents 8.1% year-over-year growth compared to $1.57 trillion in 2025.

Corporate travel budgets are expected to increase 5% globally in 2026. European companies forecast 5.8% budget growth, while U.S. companies expect 4.9% increases. A Morgan Stanley survey of 160 travel managers found 61% are optimistic about 2026 travel demand, up from 50% at mid-2025.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada, and Mexico will drive a projected 3.7% increase in international visits to North America. Total U.S. travel spending is forecast to reach $1.2 trillion in 2026.

How Did United Airlines Perform in Q4 2025?

United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL) reported its highest quarterly revenue in company history at $15.4 billion for Q4 2025. Full-year 2025 results showed:

• Total revenue: $59.1 billion (up 3.5% year-over-year)
• Adjusted EPS: $10.20 (up 8% year-over-year)
• Adjusted net income: $3.5 billion (up 6%)
• Passengers carried: 181 million (company record)
• Premium revenue growth: 11% for full year

United's Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.10 exceeded analyst estimates of $2.94.

What Is United Airlines Stock Price Target for 2026?

United Airlines has a Strong Buy consensus rating from 15 Wall Street analysts. The median 12-month price target is $129.50, representing approximately 17% upside from current levels.

Price target range for UAL stock:

• Highest target: $156 (JP Morgan)
• Median target: $129.50
• Lowest target: $62 (Raymond James)
• Citigroup target: $153
• Barclays target: $150

United expects 2026 adjusted EPS between $12 and $14, compared to analyst consensus of $13.16.

What Were Delta Air Lines Q4 2025 Earnings?

Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) reported Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.55, beating analyst consensus of $1.52-$1.54. Full-year 2025 financial results included:

• Total revenue: $63.4 billion (record)
• Net income: $5 billion
• Free cash flow: $4.6 billion (record)
• Pre-tax margin: Double-digit
• Q4 revenue: $16 billion (up 3% year-over-year)

Delta's premium cabins, loyalty programs, and non-ticket revenue now represent nearly 60% of total revenue.

What Is Delta Airlines 2026 Earnings Guidance?

Delta forecasts 2026 adjusted EPS between $6.50 and $7.50, implying approximately 20% profit growth versus 2025. Additional 2026 guidance includes:

• Q1 2026 revenue growth: 5-7% year-over-year
• Q1 2026 EPS: $0.50-$0.90
• Full-year capacity growth: Approximately 3%
• Free cash flow target: $3-4 billion
• Capital reinvestment: $5.5 billion planned

Delta ordered 30 Boeing 787-10 aircraft with options for 30 more, with deliveries starting in 2031.

How Does American Airlines Compare to Delta and United?

American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL) is recovering from a 2024 loss of $1.5 billion caused by distribution strategy errors.

Key metrics for comparison:

American's projected EPS growth rate of 53.23% annually exceeds the industry average of 21%, but its high leverage creates additional risk.

Which Hotel Stock Is Best for 2026?

Hilton Worldwide Holdings (NYSE: HLT) offers the strongest setup for 2026 among major hotel stocks based on unit growth and free cash flow generation.

Hilton (HLT) 2026 Outlook:

• Sales growth estimate: 9%
• EPS growth estimate: 14.2%
• Development pipeline: 515,000+ rooms
• Net unit growth: 6-7% annually
• Median price target: $296.50

Marriott (MAR) 2026 Outlook:

• Sales growth estimate: 6.2%
• EPS growth estimate: 13.5%
• Global properties: 8,000+ across 140 countries
• Bonvoy members: ~248 million
• Price targets up to: $370

Hyatt (H) 2026 Outlook:

• RevPAR guidance: 1-3% growth
• Net rooms growth: 6-7%
• EBITDA target: $1.09-1.11 billion
• Asset-light revenue target: 90%+ of EBITDA by end of 2026

What Is the RevPAR Forecast for Hotels in 2026?

Hotel RevPAR (revenue per available room) growth is expected to stabilize in 2026 after several years of post-pandemic volatility:

• Global hotel ADR increase: 1.2% projected (CWT/GBTA forecast)
• U.S. ADR growth: 1% year-over-year (STR forecast)
• Hilton systemwide RevPAR: 2-3% growth expected
• Hyatt RevPAR: 1-3% growth guided
• Marriott RevPAR: Low single-digit growth expected

Limited new hotel supply and infrastructure investments for major events including the 2026 World Cup support RevPAR stability.

Is Expedia Stock a Good Investment for 2026?

Expedia Group (NASDAQ: EXPE) outperformed the travel sector in 2025 with a 55.6% stock gain, compared to Booking Holdings' 10.3% return. Q3 2025 results showed:

• Revenue: $4.4 billion (up 9% year-over-year)
• Gross bookings: $30.7 billion (up 12%)
• Adjusted EBITDA margin: 32.9% (record)
• One Key loyalty members: 168+ million

For 2026, analysts project Expedia's earnings will grow approximately 20.8% year-over-year. The median price target is $273.50, with a range of $180 to $350.

Expedia's AI travel assistant "Romie" and unified One Key loyalty program across Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo differentiate it from competitors.

How Many Aircraft Did Boeing and Airbus Deliver in 2025?

Boeing delivered 600 commercial aircraft in 2025, its highest total in seven years. Airbus delivered 793 aircraft, maintaining its delivery lead but falling short of initial targets.

Boeing 2025 Deliveries:

• Total: 600 aircraft
• 737 family: 447
• 787 Dreamliner: 88
• 777: 35
• 767: 30
• Net orders: 1,173 (first time outselling Airbus since 2018)

Airbus 2025 Deliveries:

• Total: 793 aircraft
• A320neo family: 607
• A220: 93
• A350: 57
• A330: 36
• Net orders: 889

What Is Boeing's Production Target for 2026?

Boeing targets increased production rates across its commercial aircraft portfolio in 2026:

• 737 MAX: Target 47 aircraft per month
• 787 Dreamliner: Target 10 per month (up from 7)
• 777: Target 4 per month (up from 3)
• Free cash flow target: $2-3 billion (first positive year since MAX crisis)

The 777X first delivery has been delayed to 2027 due to ongoing certification requirements. Boeing's backlog of 6,713 aircraft represents approximately 11.4 years of production.

What Are the Key Travel Industry Risks in 2026?

Several risk factors could impact travel industry performance in 2026:

Macroeconomic Risks:

• Trade policy uncertainty reduced GBTA's 2025 growth forecast from 10.4% to 6.6%
• Proposed 10% credit card interest rate cap could affect airline loyalty revenue
• Potential tariff escalations affecting consumer discretionary spending

Operational Risks:

• The late-2025 U.S. government shutdown cost the travel industry $6.1 billion
• Labor cost inflation remains persistent across aviation and hospitality
• Aircraft supply constraints continue limiting airline capacity growth

Regulatory Risks:

• EU Digital Markets Act affecting OTA search result displays
• Increased scrutiny of airline loyalty program economics
• Sustainability and emissions reporting requirements expanding

Which Travel Stocks Should Investors Consider for 2026?

Based on current analyst ratings and growth forecasts, the following stocks represent key opportunities across travel subsectors:

Airlines (Premium Focus):

• United Airlines (UAL): Strong Buy, $129.50 target, best premium cabin execution
• Delta Air Lines (DAL): Buy, $82 target, record profitability and free cash flow

Airlines (Turnaround):

• American Airlines (AAL): Buy, $17 target, highest EPS growth potential but elevated debt risk

Hotels (Growth):

• Hilton (HLT): Hold, $296.50 target, industry-leading unit growth
• Marriott (MAR): Moderate Buy, $313.75 target, global scale advantage

Online Travel:

• Expedia (EXPE): Buy, $273.50 target, AI-driven technology leadership
• Booking Holdings (BKNG): Hold, largest market cap but regulatory headwinds

Corporate Travel Management:

• Amex GBT (GBTG): Strong Buy, $11 target, 19-21% revenue growth expected post-CWT acquisition

Summary: Travel Industry Investment Thesis for 2026

The travel industry enters 2026 positioned for sustained growth driven by structural recovery in business travel spending, premium cabin demand, and technology-enabled operational efficiency. Global business travel spending of $1.62 trillion and corporate budget increases of 5% provide a durable foundation for airline and hotel profitability.

United and Delta lead airline profitability with record revenues and strong 2026 guidance. Hilton offers the best hotel sector setup through industry-leading unit growth. Expedia emerges as the technology leader among OTAs following its 2025 outperformance.

Key catalysts for 2026 include the FIFA World Cup driving international visits, continued corporate travel budget normalization, and Boeing's production recovery supporting airline fleet expansion. Investors should monitor trade policy developments and labor cost trends as primary risk factors.

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