Compare/Updated Oct 26, 2026, refreshed every trading day
SMH vs QQQ
VanEck Semiconductor ETF against Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1: 4 years of returns, risk and today’s technical read, from Kavout’s own data.
SMH did substantially better over the period: $1,000 invested on Oct 28, 2022 grew to $5,590, versus $2,565 for QQQ. SMH’s 459.0% gain exceeded QQQ’s 156.5% gain because its concentrated semiconductor exposure provided greater upside, amplified by a 1.55% move for every 1% move in QQQ. That outperformance came with materially higher risk: SMH’s 12-month volatility was 40.0% versus QQQ’s 20.0%, and its worst drawdown was -35.7% compared with QQQ’s -22.8%. SMH also had the stronger 1-year and 3-year returns, although QQQ performed better over the latest 1- and 3-month periods, 6 months, and had a higher YTD return? Wait, no: SMH’s YTD was higher. SMH’s 0.35% expense ratio is also above QQQ’s 0.20%. The trade-off is clear: SMH delivered much higher returns, while QQQ offered lower volatility, smaller drawdowns, lower fees, and broader diversification.
- Price is above its 200-day average ($515); 50-day at $575.
- RSI 33, neutral. Supertrend says sell. ADX 26, so the trend is strong.
- Price is above its 200-day average ($676); 50-day at $725.
- RSI 37, neutral. Supertrend says sell. ADX 25, so the trend is developing.
Head to head
Which has returned more, SMH or QQQ?
SMH beat QQQ in 26 of the last 48 months; QQQ won the other 22. The typical monthly gap was 2.98 points.
Total return by period
Which is riskier?
SMH: Jul 10, 2024 to Apr 8, 2025; QQQ: Feb 19, 2025 to Apr 8, 2025
- 0.892
- correlation of daily moves, 4 years
- 1.55
- SMH move per 1% in QQQ
- 0.906
- correlation, last 12 months
Month by month
Of the last 48 months. The typical gap was 2.98 points.
When did they diverge?
| Month | SMH | QQQ | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | +32.2% | +15.7% | +16.47 pts |
| November 2022 | +20.4% | +5.5% | +14.82 pts |
| July 2026 | -17.6% | -6.6% | -11.08 pts |
| January 2026 | +12.0% | +1.2% | +10.80 pts |
Where the numbers come from. 1000 daily adjusted closes per fund from the Kavout market-data API, dividends included. Signals and indicators are Kavout’s own, refreshed nightly. Every figure is calculated from those adjusted closes.
Holdings and fees
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