Compare/Updated Oct 26, 2026, refreshed every trading day
QQQ vs VTI
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 against Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF: 4 years of returns, risk and today’s technical read, from Kavout’s own data.
QQQ did better over the period: $1,000 invested on October 28, 2022 would be worth $2,565 versus $2,017 for VTI, a 156.5% versus 101.7% total return. QQQ’s stronger performance came with greater risk: 20.0% 12-month volatility and a worst drawdown of -22.8%, compared with VTI’s 12.9% volatility and -19.3% drawdown. The funds were highly correlated, with daily-move correlation of 0.935, but QQQ moved 1.25% for each 1% move in VTI. QQQ also had a higher expense ratio, 0.20% versus 0.03%. The result matters because QQQ delivered substantially higher gains, but VTI provided broader-market exposure with lower volatility, a smaller drawdown, and lower costs.
- Price is above its 200-day average ($676); 50-day at $725.
- RSI 37, neutral. Supertrend says sell. ADX 25, so the trend is developing.
- Price is above its 200-day average ($357); 50-day at $377.
- RSI 42, neutral. Supertrend says sell. ADX 14, so the trend is weak.
Head to head
Which has returned more, QQQ or VTI?
QQQ beat VTI in 27 of the last 48 months; VTI won the other 21. The typical monthly gap was 1.39 points.
Total return by period
Which is riskier?
Both: Feb 19, 2025 to Apr 8, 2025
- 0.935
- correlation of daily moves, 4 years
- 1.25
- QQQ move per 1% in VTI
- 0.916
- correlation, last 12 months
Month by month
Of the last 48 months. The typical gap was 1.39 points.
When did they diverge?
| Month | QQQ | VTI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2023 | +7.9% | +0.4% | +7.46 pts |
| March 2023 | +9.5% | +2.7% | +6.79 pts |
| July 2026 | -6.6% | -0.5% | -6.08 pts |
| May 2026 | +10.6% | +5.2% | +5.38 pts |
Where the numbers come from. 1000 daily adjusted closes per fund from the Kavout market-data API, dividends included. Signals and indicators are Kavout’s own, refreshed nightly. Every figure is calculated from those adjusted closes.
Holdings and fees
What do you actually own with QQQ and VTI?
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