Compare/Updated Oct 26, 2026, refreshed every trading day
VTSAX vs SPY
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund against State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF: 4 years of returns, risk and today’s technical read, from Kavout’s own data.
SPY did better over the period: $1,000 invested on October 28, 2022 would be worth $2,052 versus $2,016 for VTSAX, a difference of $36. SPY’s total return was 105.2% versus 101.6%, while its three-year return was 82.7% versus 81.8%. The advantage was modest but consistent with SPY’s recent monthly record: it outperformed VTSAX in 28 of the last 48 months. Risk was also slightly lower for SPY, with 12-month volatility of 12.7% versus 13.0% and a worst drawdown of 18.8% versus 19.4%. Their daily moves were highly correlated at 0.995, so the practical difference was limited. VTSAX remains a very similar alternative, but SPY delivered the better return with slightly lower measured risk over this period.
- Technical indicators are not available for this ticker yet.
- Price is above its 200-day average ($725); 50-day at $767.
- RSI 42, neutral. Supertrend says sell. ADX 14, so the trend is weak.
Head to head
Which has returned more, VTSAX or SPY?
VTSAX beat SPY in 20 of the last 48 months; SPY won the other 28. The typical monthly gap was 0.24 points.
Total return by period
Which is riskier?
Both: Feb 19, 2025 to Apr 8, 2025
- 0.995
- correlation of daily moves, 4 years
- 1.00
- VTSAX move per 1% in SPY
- 0.993
- correlation, last 12 months
Month by month
Of the last 48 months. The typical gap was 0.24 points.
When did they diverge?
| Month | VTSAX | SPY | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 2023 | +5.8% | +4.6% | +1.19 pts |
| March 2023 | +2.6% | +3.7% | -1.07 pts |
| January 2024 | +0.7% | +1.6% | -0.89 pts |
| June 2026 | -0.3% | -1.0% | +0.70 pts |
Where the numbers come from. 1000 daily adjusted closes per fund from the Kavout market-data API, dividends included. Signals and indicators are Kavout’s own, refreshed nightly. Every figure is calculated from those adjusted closes.
Holdings and fees
What do you actually own with VTSAX and SPY?
- Price
- $181.59
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