Compare/Updated Oct 26, 2026, refreshed every trading day
VBIL vs VGUS
Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF against Vanguard Ultra-Short Treasury ETF: 2 years of returns, risk and today’s technical read, from Kavout’s own data.
VBIL did slightly better over the period: $1,000 invested on Feb 11, 2025 would be worth $1,059 today, versus $1,058 for VGUS. VBIL also led on year-to-date performance (+2.7% vs. +2.6%), one-year performance (+3.5% vs. +3.3%), and six-month performance (+1.6% vs. +1.5%), while VGUS led over one month (+0.4% vs. +0.3%); three-month returns were equal at +0.6%. The difference was modest, with each fund winning 10 of the last 20 months and a typical monthly gap of 0.04 points. Risk was essentially identical: both had 0.4% 12-month volatility and a worst drawdown of -0.6% from Feb 11 to Feb 12, 2025. Both charge a 0.07% expense ratio, making VBIL’s slightly stronger cumulative and longer-period results the main differentiator.
- Price is above its 200-day average ($75); 50-day at $75.
- RSI 91, overbought. Supertrend says buy. ADX 67, so the trend is strong.
- Price is above its 200-day average ($75); 50-day at $75.
- RSI 89, overbought. Supertrend says buy. ADX 53, so the trend is strong.
Head to head
Which has returned more, VBIL or VGUS?
VBIL beat VGUS in 10 of the last 20 months; VGUS won the other 10. The typical monthly gap was 0.04 points.
Total return by period
Which is riskier?
Both: Feb 11, 2025 to Feb 12, 2025
- 0.829
- correlation of daily moves, 2 years
- 0.81
- VBIL move per 1% in VGUS
- 0.763
- correlation, last 12 months
Month by month
Of the last 20 months. The typical gap was 0.04 points.
When did they diverge?
| Month | VBIL | VGUS | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.13 pts |
| August 2025 | +0.4% | +0.5% | -0.11 pts |
| July 2025 | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.10 pts |
| September 2026 | +0.0% | -0.1% | +0.09 pts |
Where the numbers come from. 428 daily adjusted closes per fund from the Kavout market-data API, dividends included. Signals and indicators are Kavout’s own, refreshed nightly. Every figure is calculated from those adjusted closes.
Holdings and fees
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